January 9, 2025

Little giants

Hi there, 

Here is this week's Hot or Not.

Hot: Early-stage dealmaking

Globally, early-stage venture dealmaking stood out in 2024.

The median early-stage deal size hit a record high of $2.1M in 2024, while valuations also rose to a record high of $25M.

We back to the good ol' days?

On the other hand, while mid- and late-stage deal valuations rebounded slightly vs. 2023, they remain muted compared to 2021 and 2022.

Dive into other key changes in the venture landscape in our State of Venture 2024 Report.

Not: IPOs

While early-stage startups gained momentum, the path to exit has grown longer.

VC-backed startups are delaying IPOs in the face of unfavorable market conditions.

From first funding to IPO, VC-backed companies that went public in 2024 waited a median of 7.5 years — 2 years longer than in 2022.

In lieu of going public, some late-stage players have raised additional equity funding or sold private shares to create liquidity for early investors and employees.

We recently discussed how Databricks is taking this approach — check it out here.

With DJT boomeranging back to the White House in 1.5 weeks, there's an expectation that IPOs could flourish in the coming year, so it will be interesting to see if the numbers ultimately confirm the narrative.

Hot: Robotaxis

A recent study from Swiss Re and Waymo shows Waymo’s self-driving cars outperform human drivers (aka are safer) by a wide margin. 

Waymo vehicles had 85%+ fewer property damage and bodily injury claims over 25M autonomous miles compared to human driver baselines.

Back in October, Waymo raised $5.6B at a $45B valuation.

The race is on.

Get the data on AV’s resurgence in this free report.

Lukewarm: Autonomous trucking

While robotaxis are on a roll, it’s been slower-going for the autonomous trucking sector.

For example, Waymo reined in its investments in trucking use cases back in July 2023 to instead focus on robotaxis, where it saw more near-term commercial momentum. 

Uber Freight’s AV activity demonstrates the longer time horizon of autonomous trucking. In September 2023, it signed a 10-year partnership with Waabi to deploy autonomous trucks. 

The sector has encountered unique challenges due to cross-state travel and strong labor unions. 

For more on Uber’s AV strategy, check out this strategy map.

The +3

Alley-oof. Love a good game of logo hide-and-seek.

I love you.

Anand

@asanwal 

Co-Founder & Exec Chair

P.S. How are leading enterprises integrating genAI into their strategy? Join our analysts on January 28 to find out.

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