I expect lots of volatility this week with the global conflict headlines and Trump yapping, but this doesn’t really change how I trade.

My edge is with the flow stuff, not with macro prediction, so I'm just going to trade my systems and move with the randomness.

TradFi views are the same

Still long S&P, NAS, gold, silver, REMX, XLE.

If we get a puke on equities, I will be looking to buy the dip.

REMX is up 25-30% from my entry, XLE is deep into its breakout. Little dips on these are buys for me.

The broader thesis hasn't changed: I want to own the infrastructure.

Rare earth, energy, utilities, maybe copper eventually. Doesn't matter which direction the world goes. If I own the infrastructure, I'm going to win.

I think gold is a great place to park money during times of uncertainty so my trading profits are going there now.

BTC building out a macro bottom

The 60-70k range is clearly being proven valid.

We had a strong 5% spot-led move up this morning, which is constructive, but I wouldn’t get too excited and swing long 69k right now.

I think we get bonked once more, which could set up a swing long. Maybe midpoint of the range, maybe lower, can't predict the location. I’ll react to flows.

Range levels: 70-72k is resistance, 65k is support. 30-day rolling VWAP is still acting as resistance and I really want to see it flip to support before getting excited.

TLDR on positioning: still delta neutral on BTC. On the next dip or two, I'll most likely close out the hedge and go spot long.

A scary geopolitical moment on an illiquid weekend failed to make Bitcoin break down to new lows.

That was a huge signal.

This morning we broke the H12 trend, which has been capping price all the way from our breakdown at 93k.

Spot has been absolutely ripping since the New York open, and we've now done a full end-to-end rotation from composite value low to composite value high.

In enemy territory now

The order book context matters here, though.

Think of it like trench warfare. The deeper you push into enemy territory, the harder every inch gets. You need more and more spot buying to break through all those asks as we climb higher.

That's why I'd prefer a pullback over chasing immediate continuation.

Wash out some late longs, wait for spot bids to come back in, then look for continuation. If a fresh consolidation forms here I’d look to get in around the lows of it.

At the same time, it’s totally possible that we bart all the way back down to 65k, similar pattern to what happened in late December.

The setups I’m looking for

As long as we protect previous month's value low, I'm aiming for previous month's value area high around 73k.

That's my high-confidence, high-EV target. I don't really want to extend much beyond that. If price keeps squeezing up, we can look for intraday triggers, but 73k is where I want to be taking something off.

TLDR; spot won today. 73k is the target after a pullback. If we BART, I'll look to buy 65k.

World's gone to pot and most of our coins are in the bin. Genuinely hope anyone caught up in it stays safe.

BTC is in a series of lower highs.

The local bullish sign is a higher low forming here. I'm still in my short from 89k and would close it on a push above 71k, which would also give us good alt rotations to play. A breakdown and reclaim would also give me long setups.

Alt-wise, it's all utter trash, except maybe one

The next best long I can see is XMR.

It's not S-tier, maybe A-tier, but you look at it compared to everything else dying out there and it stands out.

Monero has that strong anti-government narrative and HTF we've got key resistance going back years — deviation, deviation, resistance.

Do I want to long into that? Not really. But any form of breakout and I'm buying spot.

Plan is to start a position here, add on the breakout, stop below last low. If BTC loses this range and comes back to 63k, I'm out. But squinting through rose-tinted glasses, the structure's there.

We've been in the painful middle phase where pressing short or long just gets you chopped up. Hopefully that changes soon.

I’ve been keeping it simple trading the range.

Anchored VWAP from the last sell-off has been providing clean areas to trade from, when combined with spot flow.

This is a range until proven otherwise.

If we get a decisive break above the 1 standard deviation band and the previous week high, with spot buying follow-through, I'll look to long.

There are some untapped highs above for a more decisive counter-trend rally if price gets there cleanly, but mean reversion remains on the table.

Unless BTC flips the weekly trend in the 80s, this remains a HTF downtrend and focus stays on trading ranges and reversions.

The last time BTC consolidated, we speculated on a larger trending move to the upside using the 4H 200 MAs HTF trend.

Reclaiming this allowed for a larger rally than seen before.

This time the 4H 200MAs are now perfectly confluent with range highs, cohesive resistance and the key inflection point for Bitcoin.

So I'm not dabbling in speculation because of a clean HTF trend signal, I'm dabbling because of something more arbitrary: the recent war events, and price's inability to break down because of them.

To me, that signals bearish events are already priced in short-term.

I want to be clear here and reiterate that this is still a bearish, relatively weak market, and I'm fully prepared for downtrend continuation whether it comes from this consolidation or after a relief rally.

But I think this market has enough fuel to squeeze above the range highs + 4H 200 MAs and see a trending move toward the low 80s, where the 12H 200 MAs sit alongside the previous range lows.

Meanwhile, the situation in TradFi is best represented by the SPY chart on the 4H timeframe

The 4H 200MAs have historically done an incredible job representing prolonged trending moves, and the consolidation lows over the past few months have been nicely confluent with that trend.

We got a sharp drop into that region again today, but the reaction has been inspiring. If it holds, relief rallies are on the table. If not, the downtrend likely resumes across all timeframes for crypto.