Right now, I’m risk off in crypto spot, day trading BTC, and adding to TradFi spot.

Patiently waiting for a reason to change that. That's pretty much the whole outlook this week, but I have a few changes.

I bought some gold

I know I'm buying late since it's already traded up quite a bit, but this is a long-term play and I think we see trend continuation.

Having gold in my boomer portfolio alongside S&P and NASDAQ makes all the sense in the world.

My bag isn't massive or anything, it's one of those things where if I have a good month trading I put some of the profit into it.

Bitcoin macro

We're waiting for the higher timeframe range to establish now that we've had this impulsive move down.

If I had to guess, upside's probably capped in the 70k region and I'm hoping downside is capped around 60k, but ultimately I don't really know where support comes in. One can only guess.

A lot of suits accumulated too much coin above $100k and now they're all getting forced to liquidate.

Let's just patiently wait for this spot distribution wave to be over, and once it's done I think a new trend will spark.

Eventually we'll want to be spot long Chads again, but we're not there yet.

Medium timeframe plan

Every argument right now is bearish on medium timeframe, so we're waiting for momentum loss to actually show some signs and build out a range.

Not super interested in trading medium timeframe swings Bitcoin, much rather do the higher timeframe portfolio management stuff and then just day trade.

My portfolio

No major changes.

Long Bitcoin but hedged, long S&P, long NASDAQ, bit of silver, bit of gold, got some rare earth and energy equity exposure.

I'm going to keep betting on TradFi plays.

That's pretty much it. Cheers.

Pretty simple stuff this week.

Last week ended with a capitulation wick to 59k after starting around 80k, a brutal move.

We already got a 20% bounce off the lows, which is often all we get off big selloffs.

Here are my intraday and high-timeframe plans.

Levels I'm working with

Previous week's value area low and the listing anchored from the pico bottom are my bullish levels.

If we can hold here and get some absorption or rounding, the classic tenets I always talk about, I'll be more optimistic for a move up toward 75k.

The 4-hour trend is still the boss

We had a brief blip above it on January 28th, filled the gap from the 4-hour to the daily, but acceptance below carried us the whole way down.

The most optimistic take is that we're crabbing around it now instead of purely rejecting, which bodes well for fleshing out a range. Once price starts chopping above and below a certain level many times, the market's telling you it no longer respects it.

The more bearish take is that the bears are still holding it.

If we break above, I'd be looking to sell, take profits, or maybe even look for shorts around 75k and above.

The daily trend wall

The daily trend around 78-79k is going to be really hard to break.

Even in a relief or multi-month range scenario, I expect a lot of rejections off it. The closer we get to the daily, the lower the EV on the long side of the book.

TLDR on intraday and medium timeframe

The accumulation playbook

I bought some BTC last week and threw it into cold storage.

Not the largest buy in the world, but I've been wanting to buy Bitcoin for a long time and I'm mentally prepared for these to go significantly underwater.

There are 3 playbooks for accumulation:

All three are fine, and will probably get you around the same cost basis, but if I had to pick one, the momentum loss strategy (2) is probably the best for both cost basis and psychology.

That's what I'm ultimately aiming for with the bigger capital, but I got a little itchy sitting in cash forever.

I'm not particularly bullish this week.

At the same time, it's quite late to be aggressive on the short side.

But don’t worry, I did some dumpster diving and maybe found a few things worth watching.

Sellers running the show

Most alts have underperformed BTC since the lows.

There are a few outliers like PIPPIN, which is supply-controlled dog shit, but generally risk is very much off on all coins.

On BTC, we keep struggling to break through this 71.5k region with wicks that try to break out and fail, fail, fail.

I've still got the remainder of my short from 89k. If I didn't have that on, I'd genuinely just be looking to short because all we're seeing is weakness.

But it's quite late to be aggressive on the short side and too early on the long side.

Careful with this pattern

PIPPIN actually ran, and now has a nice meme triangle forming for a potential next leg.

But when it's a supply-controlled coin, one entity selling at the top of the meme triangle makes it a much worse inflection point for a breakout trade.

I'd rather wait for the big sell-off and play the rotation when it's massively oversold on a 5-minute RSI. That pretty much locks in a bottom on this one recently.

Anything worth watching?

XMR is one of the few that looks like it wants to run. If I start seeing it on spaghetti, I'd like to jump in.

HYPE is sat in the mid-range, not where I particularly like to do business.

FARTCOIN I like on the long side, but there's no reason to try it below this level.

TLDR

The market is just not conducive to strong altcoin rotations right now, so I'm waiting to take trades when I see strength at my levels.

Significant volatility on a sell-off typically leads into a choppy period, and that's what I'm expecting here.

The bounce from 60k is a mean reversion bounce unless proven otherwise. HTF support is broken and the prevailing trend remains to the downside after knifing into a significant consolidation zone (2024’s 8-month range).

I think the current regime will provide short-term opportunities in both directions.

Mid 70s and 60k are my hypothetical bounds for now, but if participants skew short heavy there's potential for a squeeze into the high 70s or low 80s before revisiting lower.

TLDR

Letting the dust settle and remaining in short-term trading mode unless the market shows otherwise.

We were correct in assuming 75k would get run over.

Degenerates on leverage piled in around that region, and the cascade of one long position into another led to a muted reaction along a historically significant support level.

Degenerates on leverage piled in around that region, there was a muted reaction, and the cascade of long positions being forced to sell followed.

The volatility subsided when spot bids came in around 60k, the spot vs. perps premium flipped in favor of spot chads, and the market to bounced.

Unfortunately, the same level that was ignored as support on the way down is now eager to act as resistance, so the upside is likely capped at around 72k for the time being.

Whenever the market sees a high-volatility event like last week, a low-volatility regime typically follows. V-reversals are much less common than people care to admit, as the market usually needs to heal over time while liquidity trickles back in.

It's far too early for me to give a technical reasoning behind this, but using eight years of crypto trading experience as guidance, my best guess is we form a range between roughly 72-64k for the next month or so.

HYPE

HYPE was the coin to watch last week, and it was one of the only coins in the entire market that managed to make a higher-high recently.

We saw a spike to ~$38, but the local trend has begun breaking down.

This breakdown implies a weakness snowball for the first time since the rally started, and allows for a deeper pullback toward the 4H 200MAs + HTF support inflection point around $27.