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THROUGH THE VALLEY

Courtesy: Anthropic

1/ Anthropic modeled what AI could do to the US economy by 2030 - and their extreme scenario gets pretty wild after 2027. By 2030, US GDP is 32.4% higher than without AI, annual growth hits 15.4% and unemployment reaches 11.9%.

Knowledge workers get hit hardest: 17.9% unemployment, wages down 11.5% and employment down 21.5%. Meanwhile wages for non-cognitive jobs go up 33.6%. So coders might be struggling while electricians are having a great time (until the humanoids arrive I guess).

The other big thing is who gets all this new money. Labour’s share of income drops from 60% to 45.2%, while capital income ends up ~81% higher than it would’ve been without AI. Basically the economy gets way richer, but almost all the new wealth goes to whoever owns the machines.

And most of this doesn’t really kick in until 2028. Anthropic’s model has 2026-27 looking relatively normal, then everything starts bending upwards pretty quickly.

These aren’t predictions btw. But “AI makes the economy 32% bigger while knowledge workers lose jobs and physical labour gets more valuable” is quite a scenario to be modeling for four years from now.

2/ Meta has a new personal AI agent called Muse - it’s designed to understand your goals and keep working on stuff for you 24/7. It gets its own isolated Linux computer with a browser, CPU, memory and storage, where your data and credentials live.

There’s also a separate “Sentinel” agent watching what Muse does. Anything it tries to send out to the internet has to go through Sentinel first, and it’ll ask you before doing sensitive stuff like buying something or sending an email. Your passwords are stored separately so Muse can’t actually read them.

Meta is also using a mix of models, classifiers and deterministic code to catch things like prompt injections before they get into Muse’s context.

And it’s free for up to 100M tokens/week. Meta says the bigger goal is to eventually use Muse to give everyone “personal superintelligence”... so pretty small ambitions then.

(listen to Zuck talk about Muse and their upcoming AI models in a new pod)

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