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It all started so innocently. I settled into my seat in Section 212 with a hot Sheboygan brat in one hand and a cold Miller Lite in the other, ready to see the boys complete the sweep against the Padres…
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Noah Cameron pitched a clean top of the first, Jac Caglianone launched a 113.5 mph piss missile into the left field netherworlds to put the Royals up in the bottom of the first, and I was feeling pretty good about how I chose to spend my Sunday afternoon.
From that point on the boys were outscored 19-1.
So, instead of looking back on a series the Royals actually won but saw their run differential drop another 11 points to a second-worst in baseball -99, let’s look forward about two weeks to the trade deadline of August 3rd.
Who will JJ Picollo trade? What will he get in return? Who on the roster is available between now and the deadline, and who is not?
Let’s answer the last question first. If your name isn’t Witt, Caglianone, or Jensen, you’re available. Go ahead and add Perez to that list too, the Royals aren’t trading Salvy at this point in his career.
Sounds great right? The Royals have a whole bunch of players available to deal this year. Here’s the problem…most of them suck. Or they’re injured. Or they suck and they are injured.
We’ll look at pitchers who could be on the move at the deadline today, and position players in the next edition of DC.
Pitchers
Michael Wacha/Seth Lugo
As the 2026 season spiraled into the abyss, the biggest question around the deadline was would the Royals deal starting pitchers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo? Most of the indicators coming from One Royal Way suggest that Wacha and Lugo are staying put in Kansas City. Ken Rosenthal quoted the Royals as saying any trade return for the two veterans would have to be “massive” for the team to consider moving them.
Michael Wacha is the most valuable trade chip the Royals have right now, and they’d be nuts to not consider moving him. He is under contract in 2027 for $14M and the club has an option in 2028 for the same amount.
How about this deal floated by former big league GM Jim Bowden ?
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Sign me up.
In early July Royals radio post-game host Josh Vernier talked about how the Royals should definitely trade Wacha. The very next day he retracted that comment, saying “I don’t know what got into me”. We know Vern. You got an earful from JJ Picollo, who has no intentions of cashing in the Royals most valuable trade chip.
Seth Lugo is the second highest paid player on the team at $23M. He is under contract for 2027 at that same figure, with a vesting option for 2028. If Lugo pitches 335 or more innings combined in 2026 and 2027, or 190 innings in 2027 alone, the option kicks in for him at $20M in 2028. He’s pitched 110 innings so far in 2026. The Royals could also exercise the option for 2028 for $17M, or buy it out for $3M.
I can’t imagine the Royals would get much in return for Lugo (4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) without eating a big chunk of his salary. Even then, the marked for Lugo is going to be thin, much thinner than it would have been a year ago when he signed his contract extension with the Royals.
The decision to trade or not trade Wacha and Lugo comes down to how JJ feels about the team’s chances for a post-season berth in 2027. That said, they have the 3rd worst record in baseball (40-60) with the two veteran starters, so the idea of holding on to Wacha and Lugo for a 2027 run seems silly.
Daniel Lynch IV
After Wacha, Daniel Lynch is probably the Royals most valuable trade prospect among the pitchers. He’s been excellent in the pen this season with a 2.23 ERA and 0.942 WHIP. It’s hard to believe, but Lynch will turn 30 in the off-season. He still has two years of club control left before becoming a free agent in 2029.
I’d prefer the Royals hang on to Lynch, and consider ramping him back up to a starting role. His talents are going under-utilized in Matt Quatraro’s bullpen and the Royals are going to have holes to fill in the 2027 rotation.
John Schreiber
As we mentioned before, Schreiber has had a pretty good year in 2026. He’s an unrestricted free agent after this season, so if there are any takers at all Schreiber is going to be traded before the deadline. I’m not sure what value he will bring in return, but he should and will be dealt.
Alex Lange
Can I interest you in a “closer” with a 6.00 ERA and 12.5% walk rate? Lange has been up and down this year. Lange’s “prove it” season in Kansas City hasn’t exactly gone as he had hoped. He leads the team with 8 saves but in his last 5 outings has allowed 1, 5, 0, 0, and 5 earned runs. Like Schreiber he is on an expiring contract and will be a free agent at the end of 2026. Also like Schreiber, he’s going to get traded but I wouldn’t run right out and buy the jersey of whoever they get in return for Lange.
Lucas Erceg
The downfall of Erceg has been both precipitous and perplexing. After being acquired in a deal at the 2024 deadline, Erceg was incredible for the rest of that season, notching a 2.88 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with a 32% K rate in 23 appearances. He was one of the best relievers in the game.
In 2026 he is one of the worst. Why? He can’t strike anyone out anymore, and walks have skyrocketed. In 2024 as a Royal Erceg struck out 32% of hitters he faced and had a strikout to walk ratio of 10.33:1. Last season the K% dropped to 19.3% and the K/BB to 2.67. That disturbing trend has continued this season. So far in 2026 Erceg’s K% is all the way down to 15.3 and the K/BB down to a disgusting 1.17.
All of this has happened on pitching coach Brian Sweeney’s watch. Most fans still subscribe to the “Sweeney is a genius” theory, but honestly this season I’m starting to have my doubts and Erceg is Exhibit A.
Erceg is 31 but hasn’t even hit arbitration eligibility yet so he has 3 more years of club control. There’s no point in trying to trade him, I’d rather see the Royals try to fix him. After all, their pitching coach is a genius.
I’m pulling for the guy, his story is compelling and I’d love to see him regain his mojo on the mound.
Others
The Royals aren’t going to trade youngish controllable arms like Luinder Avila, Stephen Cruz and Beck Way and nor should they. Randy Dobnak has actually been decent in 3 appearances, but he’s on an expiring contract and no one is trading for 2 months of Randy Dobnak.
Bottom Line
Should Trade - Wacha, Lugo, Schreiber, Lange
Will Trade - Schreiber, Lange, and maybe Lynch.
Later this week we will look at the position players that should be on the block as the trade deadline approaches.
Up Next
The Royals continue their home tour of the NL West as the 42-57 San Francisco Giants roll into the K for three games. As it turns out, hiring a college coach (Tony Vitello) with zero professional baseball experience of any kind wasn’t a great idea for the Giants.
The Giants offense is the definition of average with a 100 WRC+ as a team. Their rotation ranks 17th with a 4.40 ERA and 20th with a 1.32 WHIP. The bullpen is 23rd in ERA at 4.43 and WHIP at 1.40.
Here’s how the pitching matchups line up..
Tonight - RHP Michael Wacha (5-7, 3.77) vs RHP Trevor McDonald (3-7, 5.02)
This will be the Royals first look at McDonald. He is a sinker-slider guy who will mix in a changeup against left-handed hitters. He’s a ground ball specialist with a GB% (55.1) in the 95th percentile.
Tuesday - RHP Luinder Avila (4-3, 5.08) vs RHP Tyler Mahle (2-8, 5.31)
In 16 career innings against KC, Mahle has a 2.25 ERA and 14 strikeouts. Starling Marte (3-7) has had some success against the 31 year-old Mahle.
Wednesday - RHP Seth Lugo (3-6, 4.39) vs RHP Landen Roupp (7-8, 3.98)
Roupp’s only career appearance against the Royals came in a start in 2024 where he allowed 3 hits and 0 runs in 5 innings. He relies on a slider, curve, and changeup, and excels at limiting hard contact. He’s been excellent in his last two starts, giving up only 5 hits and 1 run over 15 innings.
It may not have much to do with what’s happening on the field, but there is bound to be plenty of Royals news over the next two weeks. Diamond Chronicles will keep you up to date!
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