Looking for sharp sports betting action this weekend? Your curated list of bets, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

San Antonio at Oklahoma City, Game 7 - Offense tends to get stifled later in an NBA playoff series. Defenders know the tendencies of opponents, and the referees make fewer foul calls to not decide the game.

In a playoff series, the Game 7 total should be six points lower than the Game 6 total, which corresponds to the market in this series. However, professional bettor Carl Sack notes that the under in Game 7 of the Conference or NBA Finals are 12-1 since the 2002-03 season. While it's a small sample size, the under has won by 15.3 points on average.

Carl leans San Antonio at Oklahoma City under 213 in Game 7, a bet he personally made. Carl uses his KillerSports.com database to unearth these trends in the NBA but the NFL and college football as well. It's also worth checking out the NBA playoff handicapping contest for bets in the NBA Finals.

World Cup Golden Boot - 41 year old Cristiano Ronaldo seemed washed as he festers in the Saudi Pro League. However, he has 13 goals and an assist in his last 14 international matches, all against solid to elite European teams.

Ronaldo could have scored more during these games, as he only made two of four penalty kicks. In addition, Portugal should be one of the top contenders to win the World Cup, which implies more matches for Ronaldo to score.

Kylian Mbappe of France is the rightful favorite at +600 to win the Golden Boot. However, Ronaldo should have much better odds than +2200, a price available at FanDuel.

Stanley Cup Finals - The Las Vegas Golden Knights storm into the NHL finals after a 4-0 sweep of the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference finals. However, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola has his doubts about this team.

In a prior series against the Anaheim Ducks, Las Vegas had fewer scoring opportunities. To quantify this, Rob uses xGF, or Expected Goals For, a metric that assigns a probability of a goal for each shot. Las Vegas had 48% of the xGF in the series with Anaheim. In addition, Las Vegas won 39 games during the regular season, fewer than six non-playoff teams.

Despite their sweep of Colorado, Rob's model gives a 42% chance that Las Vegas beats Carolina to win the Stanley Cup. Follow pro bettor Rob Pizzola for all of his NHL and NFL insights (he even chimed in on one of my videos on why Christian Pulisic hasn't scored in 2026).

Soccer analytics - In basketball, the analytics revolution noted that three points is more than two. In soccer, the revolution starts with three points for a win is more than one for a tie.

I've been fascinated with professional bettor Haralbos Voulgaris's purchase of the Spanish soccer club CD Castellon. In an article from February, he discussed how his team uses a high variance approach to optimize for wins instead of settling for ties. Voulgaris reviews the manager's plan before every match and uses his own data to construct the roster.

A high variance strategy can also work against you. After the publication of the article, Castellon went on a six game funk that started a decline from 2nd to 6th in the second division. They won't get promoted to La Liga for next season, but I'm fascinated to continue following this team run by a professional sports bettor.

Football humor - The Arizona Cardinals to Jacoby Brissett: "Are you stupid?" Brandon Carney with a banger that also roasts Carson Beck (:57).

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