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England vs Norway - Tim Lawson, known as The Bettor Life on X, bets on soccer outside the World Cup. In this quarterfinal, he expects a high scoring match.
Norway's Erling Haaland is one of the best goal scorers in the world. Whether he or one of England's studs like Harry Kane or Jude Bellingham score first, the match should open up with scoring opportunities for both teams. In agreement, my model at The Power Rank predicts 3.2 goals.
Tim see value in a same match parlay with two bets:
- Both teams to score, -170.
- Over 2.5 goals, -150.
TheScore has the best payout at +100 or even money for this parlay. Follow Tim at The Bettor Life and
check out Bettor Christmas in July.
Argentina vs Switzerland - 20 year old Johan Manzambi has been a
revelation for Switzerland at this World Cup with 3 goals and 2 assists. However, he got injured before Switzerland's last match with Colombia and will miss his second straight match against Argentina.
With Manzambi, Switzerland had an excellent 2.45 expected goals (xG) against a solid Algeria team in the Round of 32. Without Manzambi, Switzerland struggled with 0.39 xG against
Colombia, and my numbers rate Argentina's defense the same as Colombia.
Based on xG and a Poisson model, I estimate a 55% chance that Switzerland doesn't score against Argentina. Members of The Power Rank got this bet at +110 yesterday, but there is still value at +104 on FanDuel.
Wide receiver metric - To determine the importance of a wide receiver, quants often use target share, or the fraction of a team's targets that go to a receiver.
However, target share doesn't work well for a player like Chicago's Luther Burden (13% target share). In 2025, the rookie Burden didn't play as much in the
beginning of the season, which depresses his target share.
Instead, it is better to look at targets per route run, a metric tracked by Sumer Sports. The rookie Burden got targeted on 25% of his routes, the same fraction as Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins. QB Caleb Williams had faith in Burden when he was on the field, and Burden had a stellar 2.34 yards per route run (1.5 NFL average for wide receivers).
Chicago's pass offense has a high ceiling in 2026, and Burden is one reason
why.
Argentina's most important player - When I created a player model for the World Cup, Argentina was the best offensive team over France because of the midfielders. I've been pleased with this insight:
- Rodrigo De Paul slotted a pass through two lines to Messi
for a goal against Algeria.
- Enzo Fernandez scored on a header for the game winning goal against Egypt.
In this player model based on the ratings from the video game FC 26, I didn't include center backs for offense, and this might have been a mistake. In an article on the most important players for each
quarterfinal team, Ryan O'Hanlon has Lisandro Martinez over Messi for Argentina. Martinez has completed 31 progressive passes, nine more than any other player on his team.
Ryan's work is indispensable for analyzing this World Cup, so check out his thoughts for why Harry Kane isn't England's most important player and Switzerland's only hope in the quarters.
England vs Norway humor - In part of
the internet's expertise on youth soccer and what it means for the USMNT, I posted this minute video on the comical takes that coaches had on a young Harry Kane and Erling Haaland.
5 books to kick start a reading habit - If you missed last week's email, my 5 recommendations with sports and betting themes have been posted at The Power Rank.
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