World Cup Preview

It’s been three weeks, but I’m back!

The World Cup kicks off today, and I am betting it the way I bet anything: seek the cases where the price is wrong and get my money down with an edge.

Here's the outline for today’s article:

First, a quick map of the expanded 48-team field, who can win it, who's a live dark horse, and who's just happy to be here.

Then the two models I'm leaning on and where they disagree most with the betting lines.

Finally the futures those gaps point to, and the exact tickets, units, and lines I'm playing (as this week’s Bet of the Week)!

Let's get after it.

The Field: Who Can Actually Win This

Here is the background I found relevant for futures betting.

In 22 editions, only eight nations have ever won the World Cup. Only six since 1966!

The great Cinderella runs almost always top out before the trophy: Croatia reached the final in 2018, Morocco the semis in 2022, but neither threatened for the title.

At least historically, dark horses peak at the semifinal or final, and the winner is usually a team with top-seven odds entering the tournament (though frequently not #1).

This year is the biggest field ever, 48 teams instead of 32, in 12 groups of four.

More teams means more mismatches, more lopsided group games, and a longer road, which likely helps the elite sides reach the elimination rounds: there's more room for great teams to separate.

Here's the field in tiers, using typical title odds:

A note on that bottom row: with 32 of 48 teams reaching the knockouts (top two per group plus the eight best third-place finishers), two-thirds of the field advances.

Getting out of the group is the realistic goal for most of these sides.

Two Models, One Edge

In cases where I want betting direction without my own perspective, I often outsource the modeling to people with smart methodology and explore opportunities where their work and the market diverge.

In this case, I'm using two. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin model and the DTAI model from the University of Leuven, which ESPN's Ryan O'Hanlon used to pick all 103 games in an article this week. DTAI is a non-betting model that has beaten de-vigged bookmaker odds in past tournaments; Nate is a smart modeler tackling soccer anew.

Here is where the models and the lines disagree most:

The headline for me is Argentina (!!).

Two independent models, built on different math, both rank the defending champ second in the world. The market prices them sixth, behind Spain, France, England, and Portugal, and level with a Brazil side both models find overrated.

The public is fading the champ on an aging-roster narrative (which has merit) and chasing Spain's Euro pedigree.

That said, the models only see that Argentina's rating sits a whisker behind Spain's, and they drew a soft group.

Other opportunities appear in teams named above, so let’s go deeper in the next section.

This is interesting!

The Futures Bets the Models Point To

Three “outright” (win the tournament) plays fall out of that table.

Argentina to win it. Silver's fair price is about +447, and you can bet them at +850, nearly double. You don't have to believe everything about his methods to love that number. O'Hanlon's hand-drawn bracket even sends them to the final.

Colombia to win it at +4000 is a dark horse with an attractive price. Silver's fair price is around +2400, DTAI rates them ninth, ahead of Belgium and Croatia, and O'Hanlon has them winning their group and reaching the quarters. Just because historical winners have been top-heavy doesn’t mean that will never change.

Norway to win it at +2800 is also attractive. Silver has them eighth and O'Hanlon talks himself into a semifinal run on Haaland and Odegaard, but DTAI's own rating is cooler, slotting them 23rd. I’ll bet this smaller.

Two shorter-term props also grade out well.

Colombia to reach the Round of 16 at +100 is my favorite non-outright future: the price implies a coin flip, the model says 63.7%.

Norway to reach the quarterfinals at +240 implies 29.4% against the model's 33.3%.

If you have prediction market access, two popular props to fade are:

I’ll lay these all out precisely in Bets of the Week next!

Bet(s) of the Week $$

We haven’t had bets in this section in weeks, but our last bet was not a winner, as the Timberwolves upset San Antonio two rounds ago. We lose one half-unit.

With that outcome, since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 20.21 units, with a positive 13% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on the above, here are the bets

I will also be fading the England and Ghana props above (betting the “no” on Kalshi), so if you have access, I like those also at a half-unit weighting.

Prices move on futures, so line shop before you fire — prediction markets are great places to find attractive pricing across the board!

Please fill out the survey about today’s newsletter and let me know your thoughts!