The Royals closed the first half of the season the same way they opened it: By losing.

The bullpen (specifically Matt Strahm) couldn't keep the game tied as the Orioles used the sun and a Baltimore chop to their advantage, scoring five times in the sixth to break what had been a 2-2 deadlock. "Deadlock" is a funny word when it involves the Royals bullpen because it implies things were tight, or even. We know from the season's first 97 games the Kansas City relief corps does their level best to "un-deadlock" games. Such was the case on Sunday.

The loss meant the Orioles swept the Royals. Baltimore outscored Kansas City 19-6 over the three games with Strahm taking two of the losses. He pitched an inning on Friday in a game that was tied at three and yielded a two-run home run to Samuel Basallo. Sunday, he punched out Basallo for the first out of the inning. It was the only out he recorded.

A walk to Blaze Alexander was followed by a shallow flare to right that Jac Caglianone lost in the sun. There was a brief moment where I thought Caglianone could've fired to second to pick up a force, but he tipped his hand early that he was unable to track the fly ball. You can't really blame him for that. When the baseball disappears into the sun, the first thing anyone thinks is that it's going to land squarely on the dome.

That was followed by a Leody Taveras seeing-eye single up the middle to break the tie. Jeremiah Jackson hit a rule-book double to plate another and move runners up to second and third. Then, Strahm balked. I dunno, man...Strahm rocks a lot when he's come to a set position. Watching back, maybe he was too close to some of that movement when he started his delivery. It probably doesn't matter because when you're going badly, what else can happen?

How about the aforementioned Baltimore chop? Gunnar Henderson hit one that Statcast measured at 0 feet...because it clattered off of home plate and ricocheted back into the air. Official launch angle on that was -81 degrees. Strahm, bless his heart, tried to flip the ball to Carter Jensen at home. It was futile. "Bless his heart," is what my great-grandma would say when someone was toast. Strahm is certainly crispy at this point.

The only true excitement in Sunday's game came when Lucas Erceg, after allowing the obligatory bullpen home run, came up and in on Alexander with a 1-2 fastball, hitting the Oriole third baseman on the hand. What followed was a helmet toss and a few words directed towards Erceg. The benches came out onto the field. It was not a "fracas" as described on the MLB.com mothership, rather a "discussion." I would say that Alexander's reaction was one of frustration. While I initially thought the ball made contact with his shoulder, replays had it hitting his hand. After the game the Orioles announced Alexander had suffered a non-displaced fracture on his left hand. Oof.

The timing was bad on Erceg's part, with the HBP coming after that home run, but if the bullpen has been guilty of anything this season, it's been poor timing. He certainly wasn't looking to hit a guy on a 1-2 pitch. He needed the out. Perhaps Alexander's frustration stemmed from the fact that Erceg was quick with his delivery on the pitch.

We certainly got the full 2026 Royals experience this weekend: A close game blown late by the bullpen. A close game blown in the middle innings by the bullpen. And, sandwiched between that, a game where the offense went six innings without a hit before succumbing feebly to their opponent. Those two games a week ago where the Royals tallied 31 runs? A distant memory.

The Royals have now lost five in a row since the offense retreated back into its shell. Their overall record of 38-59 is a .392 winning percentage which is tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the worst in the majors. In the majors. As far as I know, the Colorado Rockies are still Major League. A .392 winning percentage means they're on pace for an overall record of 64-98.

I wish I could tell you I can see glimmers of promise, but I just cannot. Not with this bullpen. Not with a starting rotation that has been decimated by injury. Not with an offense with a couple of hitters of quality. The remaining 65 games don't offer promise. They're merely markers as the offseason looms. Sure, there's the upcoming trade deadline, but the Royals don't have anyone of value they'll part with. They stubbornly insist the core will improve and will see them through...not this year, obviously, but next year and the year after that. We have fallen back into the rhythms of 15 years ago or so...get 'em next season.

The draft was held over the weekend and, picking sixth, it will not surprise you to learn that the Royals had the first, "Hmmmm..." moment of the event. That's because their selection, Zion Rose, an outfielder from Louisville, was pegged by most observers as someone who would be picked somewhere in the upper 20's. Here's what Baseball America had to say:

"On talent, Rose is a good player, but taking him this high feels like a reach, reminiscent of when the Royals drafted lefthander Frank Mozzicato seventh overall in 2021."

Look, I'm not going to pretend I know these college players a great deal and I'm far from a prospect hound, but hanging a Mozzicato comp on the guy is like forcing me watch first inning sacrifice bunts. You don't want to make me watch first inning sacrifice bunts.

However, most of the analysis—and the stats—say Rose is a pure hitter who makes consistent contact. And it's loud contact. From Keith Law at The Athletic:

"Rose can flat-out hit, and if he hadn’t missed almost half of the spring with an ankle injury, I think he’d be a top 15 pick. The Louisville junior hit .417/.491/.646 in 36 games — nearly all of it in ACC play — after returning from the injury, moving between center field and left field...He has excellent hand-eye coordination and bat speed, whiffing just 10 percent on fastballs this year, and 23 percent on everything else combined, and rarely chases outside the zone until he gets to two strikes."

The amateur scout in me likes these sorts of guys: Hitters who command their zone and make consistent contact. Give me that over a power dude who whiffs 35 percent of the time all draft, every draft.

So the Royals, with a draft pool of $15,954,000 at their disposal, will seemingly get Rose under their first round, number six, slot of $7,746,100. They will presumably use that savings on their second-rounder, high school pitcher Jack Slightom. From BA:

"Slightom is a projectable righthander with a tall, 6-foot-4, 200-pound frame. He’s trended in the right direction over the last year with his fastball, and was a helium prep arm in the spring after reaching back for 97-98 mph velocity at peak. During the 2025 circuit, Slightom pitched in the low 90s and touched 95, but he’s been consistently throwing the ball in the mid 90s during the spring for his Lyons High team in Illinois."

Baseball America also notes that Slightom played quarterback for his high school team and has also suited up for the basketball squad. So the kid is an athlete.

I'm generally not thrilled with high school pitchers, but if the kid throws hard and can command, why not take a chance? BA hung a 60 grade on his fastball and a 55 on his slider, giving him a pair of slightly above-average pitches as a jumping-off point.

In between Rose and Slightom, the Royals had a competitive balance pick at number 30 they used on Ole Miss right-hander Tyler Rabe. Rabe missed 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He throws his fastball in the mid-to-upper 90s and has even tickled triple-digits this spring. Sexy. Even sexier is his ability to command. He finished the collegiate season with a a 34.2% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate in 76 innings. That gives me Kendrys Chourio vibes, which is exactly what you want. From BA:

"Against both lefties and righties, Rabe prefers to throw a hard cutter around 90 mph as his go-to secondary pitch. It was his best swing-and-miss offering this spring. He also throws a mid-80s slider that has fringy pure spin rates, but its solid tilt helps him collect whiffs at the bottom of the zone and below."

A four-seam at 95ish, a 90 mph cut fastball and a mid 80s slider with some downward tilt? Let's roll with that.

Rabe threw a total of 92.1 collegiate innings, so he has low mileage on that arm. The stuff could see him cruise through the system.

With the draft happening, MLB decided to also cram its Futures Game into the mix to give the prospect hounds sensory overload. The Royals were represented in the game by catcher Blake Mitchell and the aforementioned Chourio. Mitchell started and went 0-1 with a walk. Apparently, Mitchell put on one of the more impressive displays in batting practice.

Chourio got into the game in the fourth and faced three batters, allowing one hit while striking out one. The strikeout came on a nasty 98 mph fastball on the inside corner to Rockies prospect Charlie Condon. Chourio threw 14 pitches and, as you would expect, 10 of them were for strikes.

Central Issues

The first half comes to a close in what can only be described as a zany, upside-down division.

Athletics 1
White Sox 9

The White Sox put a six-spot on the board in the first, powered by home runs from Sam Antonacci and Braden Montgomery. Kyle Teel also had a two-run single in the opening frame. The Sox swept the A's and enter the break with 50 wins and a share of the lead in the AL Central. They won just 41 games total two seasons ago.

Angels 2
Twins 4

Trevor Larnach singled and homered and drove in two runs for Minnesota, while starter Taj Bradley spun seven innings allowing just six hits and two runs while striking out six. Minnesota has won eight of their last nine series. They are 20-16 since the start of June. That displeases me.

Guardians 5
Marlins 2

Cleveland starter Joey Cantillo threw five innings and struck out nine while Brayan Rocchio homered and singled to drive home in two. Chase DeLauter added a solo dinger. The Guardians swept the three-game series to keep pace with the White Sox.

Phillies 5
Tigers 0

All-Star snub Zack Wheeler (he was snubbed and then he wasn't and then he refused an invite because he was initially snubbed) struck out 10 over six innings. JT Realmuto cleared the bases with a double in the sixth and the Phils cruised to a victory over Detroit ace Tarik Skubal.

We've been looking at standings like this for the better part of the season and it still fails to compute.

It's been a hot second since I've posted FanGraphs postseason odds, mainly because it's just a cold splash of reality and sometimes nobody wants to face that kind of crap. Yet with the books now closed on the de facto first half of the season, I owe it to myself (and to you) to take a peek.

That's unbelievably ugly. Hideous. Especially the part where the Royals and White Sox have basically swapped odds from the start of the season to now.

Up Next

It's All-Star week with the festivities happening in Philadelphia. Monday is the Home Run Derby with Jac Caglianone set to launch a few bombs. His dad will be pitching to him.

There's a format change in the derby this year where hitters are giving a set number of swings: 20 in the first round and then 15 in the semis and the finals. I cannot offer an opinion on the change, because...who really has an opinion on the Home Run Derby?

The broadcast of the Derby? That's something where I can have an opinion. It is on Netflix for the first time this year, so we'll see how that goes.

As long as Caglianone doesn't go full Canó, things will be fine.