Hi, everybody, here’s a look at what’s in this edition: | A look at the legal and logistical redistricting landscape in Missouri Why the mistake of sending duplicate ballots almost never results in election issues And get early access to Votebeat’s new midterm alerts emails
| | It was another week of on-and-off redistricting drama: In case you missed it, it’s on in Florida and off in Alabama and South Carolina. But there’s one state where a legal and logistical crisis is brewing over the fact that election officials can’t agree on whether redistricting is on or off. Call it Schrödinger’s map. | Missouri was one of the first states to heed President Donald Trump’s call for Republican-controlled states to redraw their congressional lines. But unlike the others that have done so, Missouri allows residents who don’t like a law passed by the legislature to gather signatures to put that law to a statewide vote. Opponents of the new Republican gerrymander did just that, and in December they submitted more than 305,000 signatures to the secretary of state — almost three times as many as are required to make the ballot. | Crucially, under the Missouri Constitution, a law that is referred to a public vote isn’t supposed to take effect unless and until voters approve it — meaning the mere existence of a referendum on the map should have been enough to prevent it from being used in the 2026 election. But, breaking from precedent, Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins took the position that merely submitting the signatures wasn’t enough to put the map on hold. Instead, he said, the map would remain good law until his office officially verified all the signatures and certified the referendum for the ballot. That decision was legally challenged, but the Missouri Supreme Court sided with Hoskins. | As things stand today, the referendum still is not officially certified. Hoskins has until Aug. 4 to make a final determination. The problem is, Aug. 4 is also the date of the Missouri primary — and local election officials have to plan to hold that election under one map or the other. They have to assign voters to the appropriate districts in their computer systems as soon as possible and send out the first ballots to overseas and military voters by mid-June. | With the Republican gerrymander still technically on the books, Hoskins is telling county clerks to plan for the primary to take place under the new map — even though it’s very likely that the referendum got enough signatures to qualify. | At least one clerk is not yet doing that. | Boone County Clerk Brianna Lennon, a Democrat, initially said she would not update voters’ information to reflect the new map while the referendum remained uncertified. She has since gained the ability to load both the old and new congressional lines into the state voter registration system and toggle between them, but she still has not decided which map to use for the August primary. | “We’re trying to look down the timeline building up to August 4 and figure out what the least likely damage will result from,” Lennon told Votebeat. In theory, Lennon said, her office could create two sets of ballots, include both possible congressional districts on a single ballot, or go “full bore” into the old congressional map and hope that it turns out to be the right one. Those were the kinds of questions she said clerks had hoped to have answered “well before we started setting up for the election.” | | We want to hear from you: What are you most worried about for the 2026 midterm elections? Let us know. | | |
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| For Lennon, the uncertainty is not just technical. She is worried “about the validity of the results of the August primary.” Candidates have already filed to run under the new congressional map. But if Hoskins certifies the referendum, the Missouri Supreme Court has confirmed the map would be paused until voters decide whether to approve it. “And if that’s the case, does that mean we’ve just run a primary election on a set of maps that are no longer valid?” Lennon said. | The logistical burden is concentrated in just a handful of places. Most Missouri counties either are not affected by the new map or would move wholesale from one congressional district to another, making the change relatively simple. But four counties — Boone, Jackson, St. Charles, and St. Louis — have voters who must be reassigned at a more granular level because the new map changes the lines within the county. For those clerks, the uncertainty is not just which map is legally correct, but how much time they have to build ballots and voter records around it. | “Right now it’s every county for themselves and not everyone will make the same decision,” Lennon said. | That frustration is shared by Clinton Jenkins, the Republican Miller County clerk who serves as president of the Missouri Association of County Clerks and Election Authorities. | Jenkins has described communication with Hoskins' office as poor since Hoskins took office last year, telling the Missouri Independent in mid-May that Hoskins had failed to provide guidance on the switch, and that Jenkins’ efforts to build a relationship between clerks and the secretary of state's office "just never materialized." | After the Missouri Independent article was published, Jenkins said, Hoskins asked for a meeting and accused Jenkins of being “a liar” over his claims of poor communication. In that meeting, Jenkins said, Hoskins also told him he was committed to “hold firm” to the Aug. 4 deadline for a final answer on certifying the referendum — the same day as the primary. | “He said we were in uncharted waters,” said Jenkins. “At least this has meant more communication with clerks.” | But more communication has not brought more clarity. Hoskins has told clerks to prepare to use the new map because, for now, it remains in effect. But Jenkins said he has not told them what to do if the referendum is certified on or near Aug. 4, suspending that same map just as voters are using it. Instead, Jenkins said, Hoskins has told clerks only that he expects them to comply with whatever map is in effect. | Hoskins’ office did not respond to a request for comment. | Hoskins’ critics are also worried his stance could provoke a constitutional crisis. It’s possible that Hoskins announces the referendum has made the ballot — legally blocking the use of the new congressional districts — on the same day that voters are actively voting in those new districts. That could throw the legitimacy of the primary into doubt — it’s even possible the results could be thrown out in court, said Lennon. | No one can say with confidence what would happen next. Lennon said she expects litigation after the primary “no matter what,” because candidates would likely have standing to challenge the outcome if the election is held under a map that is later suspended. The question then would move from election offices to the courts: whether the primary results still count, whether Missouri must somehow redo part of the election before November, or whether it is too late in the cycle to change course. For now, Lennon said, all of those outcomes seem possible. | Practically speaking, though, August is too late in the summer to order and pull off a whole new primary election under different lines before November. So realistically, whatever congressional map is used on Aug. 4 is also going to be used in the general election — even if it’s the map that is legally not supposed to be in force. | That’s certainly Hoskins’ position. “I would say that it's too far along in the election in order to change the maps for 2026,” Hoskins told St. Louis Public Radio earlier this month. Of course, that’s a convenient truth for Republicans, who are eager to use the new map because it increases their chance of holding onto the House in 2026. Indeed, the maps’ opponents and local clerks argue this was Hoskins’ plan all along: drag his feet on certifying the referendum so as to leave election officials with no choice but to implement the gerrymander. | If that was the plan, and if it works, House Republicans will have Hoskins personally to thank for almost certainly adding one member to their ranks next year. But if a court rules after the primary that Missouri just held an election under an illegal map, well, it could be a very chaotic few months for the state’s top election official. | |
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