Looking for sharp World Cup final betting action? Your curated list of tips, analytics and humor, every Saturday at 10am Eastern.

World Cup final - My model uses matches the past five seasons and adjusts for strength of schedule with my algorithms at The Power Rank. For the semi-finals, my model favored the two underdogs by the markets (Spain, Argentina).

For the final, my model makes Spain the favorite, which I think is correct. They have both the player talent and international results to earn this. However, Argentina is an incredible attacking team with the second best defense by xG allowed in the World Cup. My model gives a 47% chance they win the World Cup on Sunday.

Yesterday, I sent Argentina +130 to win the World Cup as a lean to members. The market has moved towards Argentina, but I would still bet it at +128 on FanDuel.

Assist prop in final - Expected assists (xA) gives credit to a player for creating an expected goal (xG) for a teammate. While xG data for the World Cup is easily available, I haven't found a source for xA.

However, Ryan O'Hanlon of ESPN wrote that Lionel Messi has generated about 3.4 xA in this tournament. This implies a rate of 0.49 xA per 90 minutes for the greatest of all time.

While this estimate might be high, it gives a 39% chance Messi has an assist during regulation. I like giving Messi extra time as well to notch an assist, and +220 at FanDuel has value (31.3% break even probability).

Lamine Yamal - The 19 year old Spanish phenom hurt his hamstring this spring. Yamal usually devastates defenses with his dribbling from the right wing, but he has not seemed 100% in the World Cup. However, the data says I'm wrong.

In making the case for Messi, Ryan O'Hanlon of ESPN noted that the Argentine leads players at the World Cup with 45 progressive carries, or dribbling sequences in which move the ball 25% or more towards the opposing goal.

However, Lamine Yamal is second with 42 progressive carries. In addition, Yamal has played 495 minutes, about 20% fewer than Messi, so the youngster's rate of generating progressive carries has been higher.

3 overrated college football teams - Since 2015, I've picked three teams overrated compared to the preseason college football AP poll.

This might seem like an easy task given the public narrative about polls. However, the preseason AP poll is a remarkable predictor of team strength because of the wisdom of crowds. For example, in the 10 seasons of the four team playoff, almost half of teams ranked in the top 5 made the playoff.

Last year by my tracking, I went 3-0 on these three overrated teams: Illinois at 12th, Michigan at 14th, and Iowa State at 22nd. Check out my record for more than a decade at this page on The Power Rank.

World Cup humor - England's motto about the World Cup had been "it's coming home," a dream that expired against Argentina. British comedian John Oliver put it in perspective by saying "It's coming home is like referring to a dog you lost 30 years ago" in a fantastic :33 clip.

Willing to share these nuggets by email, text or social media? Word of mouth has always been the best marketing for my solo business at The Power Rank.

Please copy and paste this link:

https://thepowerrank.com/2026/07/18/5-nugget-saturday-july-18-2026/

Thank you!