There is a bet on England vs Argentina below, but first a short newsletter on the history between these two countries. This was co-authored by Eli Feng, a rising senior at Community High School.

In a sweltering summer, the World Cup climbs towards its apex as England takes on Argentina. However, it's not 2026. 

Forty years ago in 1986, England met Argentina in the quarterfinals in Mexico, a match made famous by the hand of God. But before that match started, the two nations were locked in a different struggle. The Falklands War loomed over that match, as the World Cup has always been about more than sports. 

To understand that conflict, let’s go back to post World War II Argentina, a country controlled by military strongmen with various levels of United States support. Leopoldo Galtieri took control in 1981 but was having problems with the economy.

To boost his popularity, Galtieri invaded the Falkland Islands off the coast of his country. The Argentines considered these islands as part of their country despite British rule. 

The Argentine military took over and threw out the small number of British forces. This seemed to have the desired effect for Galtieri as crowds cheered the conquest in the capital Buenos Aires.

The British responded in the strongest terms as Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sent a large force to retake the islands. In the end, the British Marines and paratroopers were able to defeat the larger force of Argentinian conscripts. Both sides lost hundreds of lives in the conflict.

During the war, Diego Maradona and the Argentina national team were in Spain for the World Cup. As Jonathan Wilson describes in his book Angels with Dirty Faces, they found out the truth that their country would lose this war to England in the neutral Spanish newspapers. The news back in Argentina was biased.

Four years later, England and Argentina faced off in the quarterfinals of the World Cup in Mexico. Early in the second half, an English defender mishit a clearance, sending it towards Diego Maradona. Maradona contacted the ball, popping it over the goalkeeper and into the goal.

In real time, it seemed like Maradona headed the ball. Replay would have shown the ball went off his hand, and Maradona later described it as the hand of God. Argentina beat England 2-1 to advance and eventually win the World Cup.

In a 2019 documentary, Maradona related the goal to the Falklands War. “It was a nice feeling like some sort of symbolic revenge against the English.” 

40 years later, Argentina will play England again in the World Cup. Great Britain still controls the Falkland Islands, but these islands still loom large in the hearts of the Argentina players.

Bet on the match

As I sent to members yesterday, I like the underdog Argentina because all the models I trust give them a greater than 50% chance to win and a few other reasons. There is value in Argentina +114 to advance past England (price at FanDuel).

It should be an incredible match that might end in penalties.

Thanks for reading!

Ed