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The Royals have played 16 games since the last edition of the Diamond Chronicles hit your inbox. During that time they have beaten one of the best pitchers in baseball 15-1, lost to the odious White Sox 22-1, and seen Tyler Tolbert (!) tie a major league record by getting a base hit in 12 consecutive plate appearances. Oh yeah, he also became the only player other than some rube named Roberto Clemente to have back to back 5-5 games.
Roberto Clemente and Tyler Tolbert. Two names etched in baseball lore forever, just like we all expected.
All in all it has not been a great three weeks for KC. They went 6-10 in those 16 games and now own the third worst record in baseball at 38-55, “good” for last place in the AL Central and 5.5 games behind 4th place Detroit.
So…
Let’s look ahead. Specifically let’s look ahead to this Saturday when the MLB Draft commences. The Royals have the #6 and #30 picks in the draft this year, it’s crucial they not screw those up given the current state of the organization.
Let’s face it, Dayton Moore and Lonnie Goldberg failed miserably for the most part with their high draft picks. That’s why the upper levels of the minors are bereft of prospects right now. Other than Brady Singer in 2018 and Bobby Baseball in 2019, Goldberg and Moore teamed up to make some of the worst first round picks in baseball history….
2011: Bubba Starling (5th overall)
2012: Kyle Zimmer (5th overall)
2013: Hunter Dozier (8th overall)
2014: Brandon Finnegan (17th overall)
Finny gets a break due solely to his performance in the 2014 AL Wildcard Game
2015: Ashe Russell (21st overall)
2017: Nick Pratto (17th overall)
2020: Asa Lacy (4th overall)
2021: Frank Mozzicato (7th overall)
2022: Gavin Cross (9th overall)
2023: Blake Mitchell (8th overall)
Mitchell has shown some promise, but is still hitting only .219 and striking out a ton at High A Quad Cities. The two guys I wanted at #8 who were both available were college bats Matt Shaw and Kyle Teel. Both are in the majors now. Mitchell was a high school pick, but he’s about to turn 22 so his prospect clock is starting to tick.
You can’t call that track record anything other than a litany of abject failure that Royals fans continue to pay the price for today.
General Manager JJ Picollo hired Brian Bridges to oversee the scouting department and draft in September of 2023. His first draft pick was Jac Caglianone (6th overall in 2024). So maybe things are looking up…
Draft Philosophy
What kind of player do you like in the draft? High school or college? Arm or bat? I prefer the Royals steer clear of high school pitchers. There’s just so much development that has to take place, so many variables that have to fall right for an 18 year old kid to become an impactful major league arm. That said, the Royals may have just that in 2024 second-rounder David Shields out of Mount Lebanon HS in Pittsburgh.
There’s been some talk that the Royals should just lean into their strength (pitching development) and go all in on arms in this year’s draft.
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I get it I guess, but if you are going to give up on drafting hitters then you have to acquire them, presumably by trading your excess pitching inventory. This Royals front office has not demonstrated an ability (or even willingness) to do that, and we have seen this season how pitching “depth” can evaporate almost overnight.
A week or two ago there was speculation that the Royals would focus on outfield bats in the draft due to their inability to add an impact one to the major league roster this season. “Drafting for need” works in the NFL where first rounders are expected to step right in a starting role. Baseball is different. Although there is a desperate need for outfielders in the system, I don’t want to pass on a better prospect just because he plays a different position.
Most people in baseball agree that the top three picks in this year’s draft will be high school SS Grady Emerson, UCLA SS Rock Cholowsky, and Georgia Tech C Vahn Lackey, in some order.
Let’s take a look at the handful of players that the Royals have been linked to at pick #6…
SS Jacob Lombard (Gulliver Prep HS, FL) - The latest mock drafts from both Baseball America and Fangraphs have the Royals taking the 18 year old Lombard. BA and MLB have him rated as the #5 prospect in the draft. He’s the younger brother of Yankees prospect George Lombard, Jr. and the son of former big leaguer George Lombard.
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OF Eric Booth Jr. (Oak Grove HS, MS) - Booth is a speedster whose father was an all-world kick returner at Southern Mississippi. He’s very young, having just turned 18 on Independence Day. Booth is a left-handed hitter with good bat speed and power. Baseball America and MLB both rank him as the #6 prospect in the draft.
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OF Drew Burress (Georgia Tech) - If the Royals opt for a college bat it will probably be the 21 year old Burress. He won’t impress you coming off the bus, he’s listed at 5’9 but is probably 5’7. He’s got surprising power and holds the GT record with 60 career home runs in three seasons. Baseball America ranks him as the #8 prospect, MLB has him at #7.
RHP Jackson Flora (UC-Santa Barbara) - Most mock drafts have Flora being the first arm off the board. Baseball America and MLB rate him as the #4 prospect this year. He’s got a big frame (6’5) and a power arm with a fastball that sits in the high 90’s and can touch 100 mph. Here’s how he does it…
It’s pretty clear that Flora is the best college arm in the draft, he might not be there for the Royals at #6.
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LHP Gio Rojas (Stoneman Douglas HS, FL) - If Flora isn’t the best pitching prospect in the draft, then it’s probably prep lefty Gio Rojas. He’s old for his class having already turned 19. Like Flora, Rojas has a big frame (6’4) and blazing fastball. Like most HS arms he can wobble with his command at times. MLB ranks him as the #8 prospect in the draft, but Baseball America has him all the way down at #17.
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I think it is likely the Royals will pick one of these 5 guys at #6. My preferences in order are Lombard>Burress>Flora>Booth»»Rojas. Of course it’s also possible that they will pick from outside this group and “underslot” the #6 pick in order to save money to use later in the draft (perhaps at #30). Rojas might even fall into that category. Fangraphs talked about that in their latest mock draft….
There is persistent industry buzz that the Royals are at least considering cutting a deal here, right on down to the amount they’d be looking to save (about $2 million), but logically, that’s contingent upon the players they like a lot being gone when they pick. I am not sure what they think of Lombard. Scouting Director Brian Bridges has had an appetite for hit tool risk before (Jac Caglianone, Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond were the tops picks in his two drafts as Royals’ Director) and he was with the Giants they drafted Eldridge, Martin, and Reggie Crawford. Lombard is in that category of player. If the Royals cut a deal, the names bandied about have been two-way high school player Jared Grindlinger, top high school pitcher Gio Rojas, and USC left-hander Mason Edwards.
Want to watch the draft? Leave it to MLB to make that as hard as possible…
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.They can’t even get the entire first round on the same channel for crying out loud. The boys over at Royals Weekly usually do a draft livestream on their Youtube channel that is a fun watch. I’ll be there for that if they do it again this season.
Injury Updates
There has been a lot of injury news around LHP Cole Ragans in the last 10 days or so, all of it bad. Very bad. The Royals erstwhile ace underwent his third elbow surgery on July 1st and is not expected back in action until at least mid-2027. IF he is able to return to action then, I think it makes sense to try and turn him into a closer. We have two seasons worth of evidence that he can’t hold up to the rigors of starting, and Lord knows the back end of the bullpen could use some bolstering.
The news isn’t much better for LHP Kris Bubic. He was scratched from his second rehab start due to shoulder soreness and is now shut down until after the All-Star break. Bubic hasn’t pitched since May 14th, and given his impending free agent status at the end of the year I think he may have thrown his last pitch in Royal blue.
3B Maikel Garcia has been on the shelf since June 23rd with a left hand muscle issue. There’s been essentially nothing in the way of updates from the club on Garcia. I don’t know why injuries with this guy are always so mysterious.
CF Kyle Isbel experienced some soreness in his foot while recovering from a tear of his left plantar fascia, putting an expected rehab assignment this week on hold for now. Don’t expect Isbel back before late July at the earliest.
The lone positive on the injury front is the news that 1B Vinnie Pasquantino could rejoin the club this weekend. He started a rehab assignment with Omaha two nights ago and got a couple base hits for the Storm Chasers. He’ll start again for Omaha tonight and could be back in the Royals lineup on Friday in Baltimore.
Home Run Derby
It was announced earlier this week that Jac Caglianone would take part in the HR Derby this year. I’m not sure anyone in baseball has the raw power to nuke a baseball like Cags, so this is a must-watch for Royals fans. If you have Netflix that is. That’s right, the premier event of All-Star week for non-baseball fans, the Home Run Derby, is not going to be available over-the-air or even on cable. The idiocy of Rob Manfed really knows no bounds.
That’s it for now, thanks as always for reading and sharing DC. Next week is the All-Star break, time for our mid-season report and a look ahead to the trade deadline.
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