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On Sunday afternoon, Rafael Devers wagged his finger at the dugout. The Giants' sluggish slugger didn’t want to come out of the game for a pinch-runner after drawing a leadoff walk, down 2-1 in the ninth.
Manager Tony Vitello sent one out anyway, but this latest act of insubordination was visually stimulating, and somehow added more sour ingredients to the stew that is Devers’ past year. However fast the interpersonal spat blows over, it will be an image of the 2026 Giants, whose ambitions have been bent toward an ugly reality. Giving up now to boost your chances in the future isn’t what anyone wants to do, but it’s necessary. It’s June, late June. So it’s time for some MLB teams to grapple with that turnabout. Many entered 2026 without obvious playoff expectations, and will make the best of their situations by early August. But a handful have a decision to make amid a season that hasn’t lived up to the billing. Do they still view themselves as postseason contenders? Are they willing to bet on themselves, to risk the sun setting on a fruitless season? Or are they ready to sell off pieces and relinquish their contending self-image? I count a half-dozen such teams staring down that quandary. Let’s check in on whether we think they should sell or ride their teams toward the sunset. I’ve listed the teams in order from least likely to reach the postseason to most likely. For perspective, one year ago on June 23, FanGraphs gave the Reds an 11.4% chance at the playoffs. As we know, the Mets obligingly helped that not-quite-impossible dream come true. Half of these teams still have a better shot than that. So front office executives feeling some job pressure, or some stubbornness, wouldn’t find it too difficult to convince themselves to stick it out. San Francisco GiantsPostseason odds: 2% What they should do: Sell. The aforementioned Giants are in a real hole. The veterans Buster Posey committed to for the long-term (either via signing or trade) have been present, and that’s about all you can say. Through 77 games this season, the fewest games played between Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman is 75. After a recent power surge, Chapman has at least crept up to 1.5 Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs. The contributions of Devers and Adames, though, add up to 0 WAR. They are signed through 2033 and 2031, respectively, at annual totals north of $25 million each. That’s not something you sell. That’s a soiled three-legged sofa you list on Facebook Marketplace for a week before tricking a few buddies into helping you carry it to the curb. What the Giants do have to sell, they should advertise with vigor. The list may include Chapman, still a smooth defender at third and a power threat, and starter Robbie Ray on an expiring deal. But it begins with Luis Arraez. The three-time batting champion is producing offensively right around his career-best 2022-23 levels, and at age 29 has gotten an extreme defensive makeover from Ron Washington. If he can sustain it without the infield oracle by his side, Arraez sure looks like a more-than-viable second baseman who never strikes out and bats over .300. Kansas City RoyalsPostseason odds: 6% What they should do: Sell. I don’t want to invoke the Angels too early here. Bobby Witt Jr. is only 26, and the Royals did win a playoff series (albeit a best-of-three wild-card round) with him. Yet I can’t avoid the concern that this franchise keeps trying patchwork solutions instead of bold moves even as they employ one of the three most talented players in the sport. With Aaron Judge sidelined, Witt is barreling toward his first AL MVP Award, yet the Royals are afterthoughts in a division where the White Sox are contending. Jac Caglianone is coming into his own, and Maikel Garcia will likely be better than he has been in the first half, but the Royals are still woefully short on offensive firepower behind Witt. They once expressed their commitment to winning by handing out kick-the-can-down-the-road extensions to Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, but those pitchers will both be on the wrong side of 35 by the time next Opening Day rolls around. They need to take advantage of what will likely be a seller’s market and add real potential. Boston Red SoxPostseason odds: 8% What they should do: Sell. This has just gone totally off the rails. No offense to Mickey Gasper, a 30-year-old catcher slash DH who has long run high on-base percentages in the minors, but Mickey Gasper doesn’t bat leadoff for a team with October hopes. Craig Breslow, clearly authorized to make dramatic moves, should listen on anything that isn’t bolted down. That will clearly include ever-steady starter Sonny Gray (who has said he would be open to waiving his no-trade clause) and closer Aroldis Chapman. It might also include hot and cold outfielder Jarren Duran or Masataka Yoshida, who feels like one of the league’s most obvious change of scenery candidates. New York MetsPostseason odds: 15% What they should do: Grit their teeth and ride toward the sunset. It’s not that the Mets have a great chance of reaching October. Most things that could go wrong have gone wrong in David Stearns’ attempt to build a more fluid, more flexible roster. It’s more that there’s little of value they would want to sell. Freddy Peralta is having his worst season since he joined a rotation full-time, David Peterson is trying to pitch himself out of the rotation, and Kodai Senga’s ERA is literally 9.00. With Francisco Lindor’s return from a calf injury imminent, the Mets’ fate will get clearer over the next month. Still, there’s only so much you can take your foot off the pedal. A core group of Juan Soto, Bo Bichette and Lindor, plus youngsters Nolan McLean, Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing, should represent enough to hope. Or, in Queens, just enough hope to dread the downside. Houston AstrosPostseason odds: 22% What they should do: Sell one big player. Unlike the Mets and Red Sox, the Astros don’t have a good farm system to lean on for a bounceback in 2027 and beyond. Cracks are showing behind world-beater Yordan Alvarez. A year after snapping an eight-season postseason streak that included two championships, the Astros are farm from out of it in the middling AL, but they aren’t up to their usual standards. They have been loathe to take a step back in-season under owner Jim Crane, and I’m not convinced they will do anything that even looks like selling. However, they should consider dangling shortstop Jeremy Peña for a king’s ransom. With a few years of control left and a new offensive level unlocked over the past two years, he has a real shot to be the best position player moved at the deadline. Replenishing the stock of young players might be the best thing the Astros can do in 2026 to keep up with the Mariners and A’s. Detroit TigersPostseason odds: 27% What they should do: Ride Skubal to the sunset. Tarik Skubal lingers as the trade deadline’s elephant in the room. Already back from his innovative elbow surgery, Skubal is going to make a bazillion dollars this winter, probably not from the Tigers. If you had to choose the best pitcher on earth for October 2026, you’d still choose him. Lots of contenders will make offers reflecting that fact. I think the Tigers will probably trade him. It could be they trade him for talent immediate enough to help them continue making a run in 2026. But listen: The Tigers have run up the American League’s best record in June, doubling their postseason odds in the process. Somehow, they have the AL’s fourth-best run differential. Their projected rest-of-season winning percentage is better than all but the Yankees and Mariners in the AL. Rookie Kevin McGonigle is on track to win Rookie of the Year and get MVP votes. Breakout catcher Dillon Dingler — 18 homers, stellar defense, yes that’s his real name — rates as the fifth-best position player in baseball so far by FanGraphs WAR. They should make one last ride with Skubal, and see if they can make it special. ⚾ The Bullpen⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾ Speaking of sunsets, unfortunately … Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander’s bodies sure seem to be making the case that it’s time to hang ‘em up. The two future Hall of Famers are both on the shelf with injuries, as they have been for much of the year. Scherzer is out with a back issue, having pitched in six games for the Blue Jays, while Verlander’s full-circle return to the Tigers has consisted of one rough start. His return from a hip problem has been derailed by a hamstring injury. These 2026 issues will fade from our memories of them, to be sure, but it looks like it’s about time to celebrate their careers instead of trying to extend them. [That sound you hear is Max Scherzer hopping out of a bush and screaming at me.] ⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾ The White Sox have a vibes wizard. Pitcher Mike Vasil (who is out recovering from Tommy John) dons a wizard cap and carries around a wand to whip up celebratory moments for the surprising South Siders. Most non-White Sox fans probably learned about this when Skubal chirped at him after a strikeout over the weekend, but the wacky clubhouse antics have been a part of the whole season. James Fegan has a full story on it over at Sox Machine Vasil sums up the gist: “It's definitely now out there, though, about if you're playing the White Sox, there's gonna be some wild stuff that's going on.” ⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾ Shot: Jazz Chisholm Jr. took a foul ball to a sensitive area and rated his pain level “a million.”
Chaser: Jazz Chisholm Jr. says he will not start wearing a cup. ⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾ New contender for Slide of the Year: The A’s Jacob Wilson did a very cool evasive dodge.
Do we think it’s better than Dane Myers’ EuroStep effort mentioned back in April? 🤔 ⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾ Will Ferrell, Marshawn Lynch and David Beckham are starring in a Lay’s potato chip commercial for the World Cup advocating for … bandwagon fans! I appreciate the obvious nod to this newsletter — can we get a link, Lay’s? — and wanted to briefly offer some bandwagon World Cup ideas. - United States: Looks actually good so far! Until that ceases to be true, it will be very fun to watch them. Folarin Balogun, the catalyzing striker, is playing on the US team by choice. He was raised in England but born in New York because his mother was a little too pregnant to fly back in 2001.
- Cabo Verde: The tiny nation off the coast of West Africa stunningly tied with both Spain (Spain!) and Uruguay and have a real chance to advance to the knockout rounds.
- Norway: Led by prolific striker Erling Haaland, Norway is headed to the knockout rounds, which means their fans can keep doing their signature Viking rowing celebration in incredible public places, such as on the floor of a moving New York City subway car.
- Côte d'Ivoire: Speedy and chaotic and fun as hell, this African team gave Germany all it could handle over the weekend before ultimately falling late. Their performance totally captivated the taco shop I was sitting in, which is an instant yes for me.
- Netherlands: I started bandwagoning the Netherlands and fun winger Arjen Robben when they made it to the final back in 2010 and never really gave it up. They aren’t considered a top-tier contender in this edition of the World Cup, but they have enough of a chance that you can dream, which is the sweet spot for me.
⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾ Back to the Giants for a minute: Several of their pitchers scrawled Bible verses across the front of their Pride Night caps to make it known that they do not respect the LGBTQ community and clearly did not want to participate in Pride Night. Doing it in San Francisco really diminishes any sliver of a chance that they haven’t had the chance to engage with and understand that community. The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee summed it up pretty well: Pride Night is about bringing more people into the group and telling them they belong in the same stadium, rooting for the same team. By resorting to “us” and “them” instead of truly understanding the humanity of the people asking for help, those who chose to make a statement on or with their hats completely missed the point. If anyone is looking to make the world better, they might try listening and understanding. Pride Night is about support and lifting human beings. Making it about something else — yourself, say, or the idea that some people aren’t as worthy of recognition or support — shows how little some people actually care about a message of love.
I’ve written about this before, in regard to Clayton Kershaw doing this. I hope that these players take another route, like Josh Hader did after being confronted with the ugliness of old tweets, and open themselves to their fellow humans, open themselves to reconsidering their actions. But the world right now seems intent on empowering them to take a bigoted stroll back to their corners, as if this is a fight and not a world we all walk along in, better together. ⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾⚾ The Bandwagon is a labor of love, but it still needs your support. If you enjoy the work here, please consider pledging a contribution to keep the newsletter going strong.
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