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April 2nd, 2026
​A newsletter by Anne-Laure Le Cunff​

🪏 Thinking Deeper

A few years ago, a company I really liked approached me with a project that felt like a dream opportunity. The work was exciting, the people were great, and I said yes almost immediately.

What I didn’t do was look at everything else already on my plate. Within weeks, I was stretched so thin that I couldn’t do any of my work well. What started as an exciting yes turned into a dangerous dance with burnout.

I made what felt like an obviously good decision. So why did it backfire?

This happens more often than we think, in decisions big and small. You skip meals to save time, but by afternoon you’re too exhausted to focus. You choose a cheaper apartment, but the long commute drains your energy every day. You accept a job for the salary, but you’re constantly stressed with no time for yourself.

In each case, the logic made sense on the surface. But every decision has second and third-order consequences that aren’t immediately visible.

Investor Howard Marks calls this the difference between first-level and second-level thinking:

• First-level thinking is simple and superficial: it asks, “What will happen?”
• Second-level thinking goes deeper: “And then what will happen after that?”

Research shows that we naturally favor immediate rewards over long-term outcomes, which is why we so often choose what feels good now over what will be better later. First-level thinking looks at the obvious benefit right in front of you. More money, less cost, quick results. It feels logical, and sometimes it works. But many areas of life aren’t that simple.

Second-level thinking forces you to zoom out. Not just the immediate reward, but the full cost. When you start thinking this way, you realize that many decisions that look smart in the short term are expensive in the long term.

Skipping meals saves you an hour today but costs you three hours of low energy later. A cheaper apartment saves money but costs you time, energy, and mental bandwidth every single day. A higher salary increases your income but decreases your time, health, and happiness.

So how can you cultivate second-level thinking?

1. Ask “and then what?” at least three times. Don’t stop at the first outcome. If this happens, then what? And after that? This simple chain moves you from first-order consequences to second and third-order ones and helps you look for the hidden costs.

2. Use the 10-10-10 rule. How will you feel about this decision 10 minutes from now, 10 days from now, and 10 months from now? It makes future consequences more visible in the present moment.

3. Experiment before committing fully. Test the decision on a smaller scale, like saying yes to a trial period, taking on a smaller version of the project, or trying it for a week before locking in. Experimenting gives you real data on the potential second-order consequences before they become permanent.

In my case, I would have still taken that project but I would have cleared my plate first, or negotiated a later start date, or maybe experimented with a different format. Same opportunity, completely different outcome.

Of course moving from first-level to second-level thinking won’t mean you always make the perfect decision, but you’ll make more informed ones, and over time these better decisions will compound.

🔬 Tiny Experiment of the Week

Ready to put these ideas into practice? Try this week’s tiny experiment to practice thinking in layers.

Many decisions feel good now but create stress later, and this exercise helps you notice that pattern. Want to dig deeper? ​​Get your copy of Tiny Experiments​.

👀 Into the Mind of...

ERIC ZIMMER

Each week I ask a curious mind about their habits, routines, and rituals. This week we learn from Eric Zimmer, creator of The One You Feed podcast and author of How a Little Becomes a Lot, out this week!

1. One daily practice you can’t do without? Small interruptions I build into my day that help my thoughts settle into better grooves over time. For me, it’s a multiple-times-a-day reminder to look for something that is going well in my life, instead of only focusing on the problems I’m trying to solve.

2. One mindset shift that transformed your work? Reconnecting with the reasons I do something. My podcast started because it was good for me and a way to spend more time with my best friend, but it’s easy to get caught up in download numbers and advertising dollars, so the shift is giving more attention to the deeper reasons.

3. One mindset shift that transformed your work? Meditating every day. I’ve had a daily practice many times, but in the chaos of a book launch, all of my practices are a little askew – and I’m okay with that. I don’t need perfection. I need consistency.

Read Eric’s book

🛠️ Brain Picks

• Stressed at work, fed up with your job and dreading Mondays in the office? “Anti-career coach” and London banker Tom Grundy has created a free guide (How To Work Your Way) for professionals wanting more freedom and fulfilment. Join his newsletter to grab the guide.​
• Break free from inbox overwhelm. Wake up to a personalized news briefing using smart filters to always surface the most relevant content at the right time. Join Meco to start using a newsletter aggregator built for reading.
​• Build a home for your community. Bring together engaging discussions, members, live streams, chat, events, and memberships all under your own brand. Discover Circle, the community platform for creators and brands.

Many thanks to our partners for supporting the Ness Labs newsletter! Want to appear here? Please email support@nesslabs.com to learn more.

🗓️ Community Events

If you enjoy the newsletter, you’ll love our community of curious minds conducting tiny experiments within a safe space and learning together. Here is an overview of upcoming events (full calendar):

• Design your springtime experiment. Wherever you are in the world, Spring can be a great time to explore new projects, test ideas, and plant the seeds for what’s next. Join me today in this 45-minute workshop to design your first tiny experiment of the season.
​• Sketch what you read. On Tuesday next week, Rachna Ghiya will guide you through hands-on practice sketching, learning, and discovering that you can think visually (even if you're convinced you can’t draw).
​• Design a life without burnout. In this workshop, Heidi Anderson will walk you through a guided reflection and live exploration where you will identify which parts are loudest in your life right now, understand what they are protecting you from, and begin to harness them for good.​
​• Improve your knowledge management system. Join the next PKM Collective meeting where we learn from one another through sharing how our systems work in the real world and give new PKM users a leg up.
​• Make progress on your project. Join Kathryn Ruge for our Monday ‘body doubling’ coworking session to work on personal or work-related projects that you want to make progress on, covering all timezones.
​• Host your own workshop (anytime!). Do you have an idea for a short presentation and Q&A or a workshop you’d like to trial? Test your first iteration in the Ness Labs community and get feedback. We promote all sessions here in the newsletter.

All of these and future events are included in the price of the membership (only $49 for one year), as well as access to our courses, workshop library, and a dedicated space to track your tiny experiments.

Until next week, take care!
Anne-Laure.