US consumer confidence fell in October for a third straight month on darkening views about the future, given the one-two punch of a slowing economy and weakening labor market. The Conference Board’s gauge fell to its lowest point since April, data out Tuesday showed. A measure of expectations for the next six months fell in October to 71.5, the lowest level since June, while a metric of present conditions increased.

Confidence remains stuck below levels seen last year as Americans worry about their jobs and making enough money to get by. Job growth has significantly slowed and inflation has now risen to 3%. Meanwhile uncertainty is rampant due to President Donald Trump’s trade war, his chaotic tariff threats and the fact most of them may turn out to be illegal.

As for the horizon, expectations for employment also softened. A greater share of consumers expect fewer available jobs in the next six months and their outlook on income prospects were less positive. Many, it turns out, say a recession has already arrived.

“Consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic,” said Stephanie Guichard, a senior economist at the Conference Board. “References to US politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.” —Jordan Parker Erb

What You Need to Know Today

Do as I say...? Top Wall Street executives dismissed fears of a brewing credit crisis—even as some of the industry’s biggest names are setting aside hundreds of millions of dollar more to cover potential losses. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Officer David Solomon pooh-poohed any credit worries, arguing he doesn’t see any systemic risk looming in the market. Veteran dealmaker Paul Taubman echoed Solomon’s remarks in a separate interview, while acknowledging there are always “idiosyncratic risks” lurking.

But amid all the public assuagement, moats are quietly being dug. Their comments came as BNP Paribas reported that provisions in the third quarter rose to $1.05 billion, including $221 million to account for “a specific credit situation.” At HSBC, executives set aside $1 billion to cover expected credit losses, including $100 million for a single client in the Middle East.

American military personnel targeted and killed more than a dozen civilians on boats in the eastern Pacific, Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth announced, bringing the total to more than 57 people the US has killed on the open seas in recent months. The White House has claimed the dead were all drug traffickers but has not provided any evidence. Legal experts say even if that’s true, the armed forces are nevertheless engaged in the summary execution of individuals who pose no direct threat, a violation of US military and international law. In fact, there are allegations that the Americans are killing local fishermen.

Hegseth, a former television host and one of Trump’s more controversial cabinet picks, has touted the killings on social media, posting clips of exploding boats. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the latest attack was in international waters and that her government will seek a meeting with the US ambassador on the issue. 

Half of all US states sued the Trump administration after it announced it won’t fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program as the budget impasse in Congress approaches the one-month mark. In a lawsuit filed Tuesday, attorneys general and governors from 25 states and the District of Columbia accused Trump of refusing to tap alternative sources of money despite being required to by law.

The ongoing government shutdown is tied to Democratic demands that Republicans agree to lift a looming Affordable Care Act deadline that will cause millions of Americans to lose healthcare. Republicans are demanding Democrats first approve a “clean” budget bill to reopen the government before any negotiations. Democrats in turn counter they do not trust members of the GOP to keep their word. Democrats now claim Trump is illegally jeopardizing the ability of millions more Americans to feed their families to force an end to the shutdown—for which polls show more Americans blame Trump.

OpenAI is giving Microsoft a 27% ownership stake as part of a restructuring plan that took almost a year to negotiate, removing a major uncertainty for both companies and clearing the path for the ChatGPT maker to become a for-profit business.

Under the revised pact, Microsoft will get a stake in OpenAI worth about $135 billion, the companies said in a statement Tuesday. In addition, Microsoft will have access to the startup’s technology until 2032, including models that achieved the benchmark of artificial general intelligence.

Hurricane Melissa smashed into the Jamaica coast on Tuesday, packing a massive storm surge and winds strong enough to level buildings. The storm registered as a catastrophic Category 5 at landfall, making it the strongest to strike the island in more than three decades. By 1 p.m. New York time, the storm notched winds of 185 miles per hour, according to an advisory from the US National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean near Jamaica on Oct. 28. NOAA

Melissa is expected to cause historic devastation, with local emergency managers ordering evacuations across Jamaica and urging residents to stockpile drinking water for as long as three days. Authorities also warned that the deadly weather conditions will also cause widespread damage to power and transport infrastructure. Track the hurricane’s path and see footage of the US Air Force flying through the storm.

What You’ll Need to Know Tomorrow

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